Dear Texas, Welcome to the Big 8
Now that Nebraska's football season is almost over (hoping for a date in Shreveport), I've taken a look around the league to see who is having a 'good year' and my eyes land on our orange clad neighbors to the south, UT. The University of Texas (at Austin) stands a good chance of going undefeated this year after hanging half a hundred on Texas Tech (of beautiful Lubbock). My advise to UT fans, don't start buying those plane tickets to Pasadena just yet.
Texas is looking overcome what Nebraska had to face in the 80s and early 90s, being undefeated in a down conference. Even though UT played a gutsy (at the time) game at Ohio State, their schedule is looking pretty pathetic compared to the likes of Virginia Tech. Texas is out of the 'meaty' part of their schedule and looking to the carb laden portion of the year with cupcakes like Baylor and Oklahoma State (who nearly lost to Div 1AA Montana State). Virginia Tech on the other hand is moving into the hefty part of their schedule with the likes of Miami, Boston College and FSU. If they don't lose a game then their stock will surely rise. Texas may find itself on the outside looking in come Rose Bowl time due to strength of schedule considerations.
To make matters worse for Texas they've handily destroyed the only 'good' teams in the Big XII (CU and TT), thus dumping them deep in rankings. Your schedule always looks worse when you destroy your opponents by 30 points or more (sound familiar?).
If U$C, Va Tech and Texa$ all remain undeafted at the end of the year I look for a U$C/Va Tech Rose bowl and a lot of bellyaching from Austin.
Welcome to the Big 8 Texas. You get what you pay for.
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After posting this I saw the new BCS rankings. Texa$ is number 1. I still stand by my analysis, but now I think if all the unbeatens finish unbeaten it'll be a 'Bama vs. Va Tech Rose bowl.
Texas might play USC in the Fiesta.
Texas is looking overcome what Nebraska had to face in the 80s and early 90s, being undefeated in a down conference. Even though UT played a gutsy (at the time) game at Ohio State, their schedule is looking pretty pathetic compared to the likes of Virginia Tech. Texas is out of the 'meaty' part of their schedule and looking to the carb laden portion of the year with cupcakes like Baylor and Oklahoma State (who nearly lost to Div 1AA Montana State). Virginia Tech on the other hand is moving into the hefty part of their schedule with the likes of Miami, Boston College and FSU. If they don't lose a game then their stock will surely rise. Texas may find itself on the outside looking in come Rose Bowl time due to strength of schedule considerations.
To make matters worse for Texas they've handily destroyed the only 'good' teams in the Big XII (CU and TT), thus dumping them deep in rankings. Your schedule always looks worse when you destroy your opponents by 30 points or more (sound familiar?).
If U$C, Va Tech and Texa$ all remain undeafted at the end of the year I look for a U$C/Va Tech Rose bowl and a lot of bellyaching from Austin.
Welcome to the Big 8 Texas. You get what you pay for.
--
After posting this I saw the new BCS rankings. Texa$ is number 1. I still stand by my analysis, but now I think if all the unbeatens finish unbeaten it'll be a 'Bama vs. Va Tech Rose bowl.
Texas might play USC in the Fiesta.
posted by Carl at 1:18 PM
6 Comments:
Not undefeated, but 11-1 Nebraska did not get the nod over the 11-1 Penn State Nittany Lions in 82.
As for the 'Big XII' dig, and the 4th and inches comment (who was your coach then? I forget.) You'll be lucky not to have Baylor, Kansas, OSU or Colorado return the favor (way to finish strong, which was my point anyway).
Don't count out the computer portion of the BCS formula. As far as the computers are concerned UT has no where to go but down, but I'll bet the human polls will slowly start to forget UT if Va Tech and Bama win out.
You heard here first...
The 'welcome to the big 8' was only in reference to the fact that the Big 12 now isn't any different from the Big 8 of years ago, one good team and a bunch of crappy teams. Its tough to win a MNC out of that.
I can't be held responsible for your erroneous interpretation of the title.
I don't really know if the Big 12 is that down. Virginia Tech hasn't really played anyone yet, since they had a K-State style non-conference schedule. They play Miami, which is ranked 6th despite the fact they have not beaten a ranked team this year (and struggled to beat a few unranked teams). The ACC is really overrated, but what else is new?
The only conference that is unambiguously better than the Big 12 is the SEC. The Pac 10 (top heavy) and Big 11 (no all-stars, but better middle and lower teams) might have an argument also. Alabama has a much bigger claim to be #1, and that claim will increase once they play LSU and (likely) Georgia in the SEC championship.
There is no way USC or Texas gets dislodged from the top 2 spots if they win out. The gap is just too big. Although Texas does not have any teams on their schedule that are currently ranked, A&M might be ranked by the time they meet (they would have to beat Tech to do so). Colorado in the Big 12 championship also will likely be ranked by then, if they win out.
If A&M beats Tech that will weaken Texas' schedule more that it will help it. A one loss Tech team looks a lot better than a two loss Tech team and a resurgent A&M team. (I fully expect the press to play up the 'throw out the record books for the UT/A&M game. The PR will do more for the matchup than a Tech loss.)
A second win over Colorado won't count in most of the computer rankings. Texas should hope for Mizzou to win the North so that they can get a different team matchup in the Championship game.
The more and more I look at the schedules, Bama looks to have the strongest case for number 1 if they go through the season undefeated. The SWC picked a nice time to have a resurgence, 10 years after its death.
The goal in the BCS is to be either number 1 or number 2. I don't see the humans dropping a defending USC out of the number 1 spot the computers can't pull that team out of number 1 but I'll bet they can pull the number 2 down to number 3.
The records of the remaining Texas opponents, except for the championship game, is somewhere around .540. The computers won't be kind.
A Tech loss will seal UT's fate.
NU/OU.
hmm.
I think UNL has a great chance against OU. OU's quarterback isn't that mobile and their O-line isn't that strong so I'm hoping that our defense can rip them apart.
Our offense just has to 'be on'. That's a 30-70 shot at best.
I think if our offense struggles (again) that we'll win ugly (ala Pitt, Wake Forest, Maine). If our offense is on it'll be our most impressive win this year.
Of course I've now jinxed us to another 70-10 blow out.
It is interesting to note that this is the first meeting between OU and NU since 1961 that neither was ranked. Oh how the mighty have fallen....
Further comments on Paul's Comments:
Yes, Va Tech hasn't played anyone, yet...I agree, but the BCS has them low because of it. Their schedule only gets better.
Miami didn't struggle to beat Colorado. Colorado looks to be the best team of the Big XII north. If that isn't down...?
(The Gary looks to seal his title as best coach of the north for the decade. Oh God I think I just threw up a little...)
Other comments.
After reading through this thread I think Mark is taking this commentary as a dig at UT, but its not. I think its a shame that the conference isn't better to help UT's case. I have little doubt that UT would clobber Va Tech in a head to head. (I also thought UNL would have clobbered Michigan in a head to head in 98, but that had little meaning too.)
Tom Osborne used to say "a rising tide raises all ships." A better conference is good for us all. I hope the North can get back to respectibility soon.
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